World War 3 Is Not Happening for One Simple Reason

To understand this, we need to know why so many regional conflicts are emerging: The United States is having a credibility crisis in its finance, its economic and military dominance, and even the very core of the idea of America—its democracy. Business and political leaders as well as demagogues and dictators are positioning for a post-American world. By this, neither these leaders nor I am suggesting that the United States would cease to exist or that it could end up a “third-world country” like some sensationalists have. Instead, this merely means the end of Pax Americana, where America will be “first among equals” in a multipolar world. In fact, and as a digression, whether Trump or Harris gets elected this November, and I think it will probably be Harris, will not affect what has already been underway in a decades-long process. The root causes of this decline in the credibility of the American Empire are found in its indebtedness, economic oligopoly, military expansion, and money in politics.

In this context, there are no two alliances or ideologies that could turn regional conflicts global. The Europeans may get involved in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine deeper, but the essence of that conflict can be understood as Russia actively positioning itself in the post-American world order against the EU. The conflict itself also hastens the arrival of that new world order. While some media would have you believe that China is fully behind Russia in this, the truth is that China is only offering a bloodline to Russia to end US hegemony. It is exercising restraint in its relations with Russia so as to maintain as good a relationship with the EU as possible. Make no mistake, the EU or whatever becomes of it if it falters, will remain a major power in the post-American multipolar world. Israel and Iran are in conflict because both are positioning to be the dominant power in the Middle East, though Turkey may also have its own calculus in this game. Russia and France are doing the same in Africa.

While on the surface there is NATO and the “Western Alliance”, in reality these are partners in cultural, economic, social, and even political exchange. They will not go to war for each other. Neither the public—and they still are democracies, however much degraded that may be— nor the elites want to sacrifice themselves. This is reflected also in the use of Ukraine as a proxy.

The Russia-China-Iran “axis” is a fantasy created by American weapons pushers and sensationalists. These countries have their own interests and again would not go to war for each other. They are partners, too, and each of them want to be partners with at least some countries in the West.

As American hegemony wanes, we should expect a period of relative economic and political instability globally. Still, we should not fear the next world war.