Strategic Significance of Ukraine’s Invasion of Southern Russia

The Ukrainian army has just entered Russian territory to execute their version of “Special Military Operation”. The strategic significance of this move is profound. Today, I highlight three points:

First, Russia has reiterated that its pre-2014 territory is the red line. Some officials even threatened the use of nuclear weapons if Ukraine attacks Russian territory; Russia has also not ruled out direct attacks on NATO if Ukraine used NATO weapons to attack Russian territory. This time, Ukrainians used NATO weapons to invade Russia. This puts a lot of pressure on the Russian government. It risks degrading the prestige of Russian military and the Russian government further. If not responded to properly, it may lay the groundwork for future direct military intervention of neighbouring European countries. The longer the Ukrainians stay in Russia, and the deeper they penetrate, the more negative it is for the Russians. Pressure can mount over time both domestically and diplomatically.

Second, the fact that the Ukrainians could more or less “walk” into Russia means that Russian has not deployed enough personnel to protect its long border with Ukraine, the country it is at war with. It is conceivable that border protection is even weaker along its NATO borders. This will force Russia to redeploy significant forces to protect its borders, which pulls strength from its attacks in East Ukraine. This will put Ukraine in a better position in peace talks, or it will at least prolong the war.

Third, Russia will conceivably attack Ukrainian civilian infrastructure in response, but this will further distance Ukrainians. The chief goal of Russia’s “SMO” was to prevent Ukraine from falling into the “enemy camp”. Even if the Ukrainians initially only hoped to join the EU one day and have a better life, after two and half years of increasingly intense warfare they probably do not want anything to do with Russia even if they cannot join the EU or have a better life. In other words, the best that Russia can hope for is to annex Ukraine territory and maybe survive until NATO implodes, which may or may not happen. However, even without NATO, the entire Eastern Europe from Finland to Ukraine will be anti-Russia. This will continue to cause trouble for Russia for decades to come.