Three Reasons Why Trump Will Lose to Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election

Abortion is a key social issue that the Democrats will run on. An overwhelming majority of Americans believe that it is an issue of personal freedom. That is, the government should not have a say in how people want to lead their personal lives. It is not, as the social conservatives say, about “murdering babies”. In fact, banning abortion would be akin to the Eighteenth Amendment that banned alcohol. Further, it would open the way for more interventions by the government, probably led by social conservatives, to restrict and limit civil liberties. Herein lies a common confusion: Social conservatives are not libertarians and do not support personal freedom; instead, many want to convert others to live like themselves

 Donald Trump probably believes in personal freedom more than most Republicans. However, neither his running mate nor the Republican Party will allow him much freedom on this issue, and it is a losing issue.

Harris is sticking with the line that Trump bows down to dictators and is unworthy of the US presidency. A contingent of Republicans would beg to differ, and in their minds it makes more sense to ally with Russia to counter China. However, this is not the majoritarian view in America. While it is true that most Americans have little warm feeling about the Ukrainians, they largely have a special feeling about Europe and the Europeans. To them, Europe is an integral part of the West, sharing with themselves culture and values, not to say technological and economic collaborations. It would be unrealistic to expect a majority of Americans to support a policy that calls for abandoning their brothers in Europe for favours from Russia.

As the campaign goes on, we can expect Harris to keep on making this point. Trump would say that this saves lives. However, the counter argument would be for the aggressor to retreat to internationally recognized borders to reach peace. It is very difficult for the American people to accept that the underdog should surrender a third of its territory to purchase momentary peace. After all, most people have a sense of righteousness.

There should be no doubt that the deep state and the majority of the moneyed class dislike Trump. Part of it is because of his personal style, which can be embarrassing for America. Part of it is his policies: Besides the Russia question, Trump also wants to deport illegal immigrants and have another round of trade war with China. Illegal immigrants are an integral part of the American economy. The majority work in jobs that no Americans would do, and they leave when they retire. This is why America has long turned a blind eye to illegal immigration. Needless to say, economic war is not desired by corporate America, either.

One Trump policy that may earn him some votes is the promised tax cut. However, it alone does not make him the favourite candidate of the moneyed class. Hence, there is also the question of vote tallying that could sway the result in Harris’s favour, even if Trump could win.

More recently, Trump also appears to be deflated, as he starts to appreciate the gravity of the situation. He probably understands the odds stacked against him by forces greater than he can control.

After all, Trump is a demagogue with some fascist tendencies. Even though this is not to say that he is remotely like Hitler, for he understands and appreciates personal freedom, it does make him repulsive to a large number of Americans. One could criticize the Democratic Party for not being democratic after crowning Hilary, Biden, and now Harris with no respect to the democratic process. However, at the end of the day Donald Trump is simply less likable than Kamala Harris.