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After 2½ Years, Can Russia Still Win?
In September 2024, Russia appears to be looking at broad strategic defeat. The question many independent-minded people must be asking is this: Can Russia still win at this point?
At the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War, most military experts and commentators thought that the Russian army would surely crush the Ukrainian defence in no time. In all likelihood, the Russian leadership believed so, too, or else they would have been mad to deteriorate all aspects of their country and their personal fortunes with a forever war. In September 2024, Russia appears to be looking at broad strategic defeat. The question many independent-minded people must be asking is this: Can Russia still win at this point?
Russia’s Strategic Defeat
Before attempting to answer this question, let us establish what I mean by “broad strategic defeat”. Russophiles would magnify the battlefield near Pokrovsk, which was known as Krasnoarmiisk before 2016. They would insist that the Russians would soon take the transport hub and crush the Ukrainian army thereafter. However, Pokrovsk is only another fortified town with logistic importance for part of Donetsk. Taking it would help the Russians secure a portion of the southern Donetsk oblast that it has not captured. It is very far from cutting the Ukrainians to the west of the Dnieper River, and still further from unravelling the Ukrainian command. If the Russians keep the current pace, it would take them another decade or two, with millions more KIA, to achieve some semblance of military victory.
However, even if they manage to annex part or all of Ukraine, that would only be the start of a more difficult occupying phase. In comparison, it took the Americans six weeks to complete the initial phase in Iraq, but it is still a forever war that they cannot extract themselves from.
Therefore, Russia is facing broad strategic defeat that comprises seven aspects:
- Complete NATO encirclement from Finland to Ukraine on the west. It is immaterial whether Ukraine is an official member of NATO when its army is fully NATO-trained, -equipped, and -commanded.
- Crumbling Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Notably, Armenia and Kazakhstan are distancing themselves from Russia.
- Deteriorating economic condition. Originally, Russia withstood Western sanctions well. That is thanks to its healthy fiscal condition and rich resources. However, nothing drains wealth like war, and a war that is intensifying with no ends in sight destroys a country’s economy with certainty. Empires much more dominant than Russia have died from it.
- Depleting resources to fight. It has been reported that the 22,000 armoured vehicles that the Russians had at the start of the war have been reduced to 12,000, among which 6,000 cannot be returned to service. Since last year, repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries and depots also put a strain on Russian oil supply. More recently, the Russians are importing significant amount of North Korean weapons, which signals that the consumption of materiel is faster than Russia can produce itself.
- International isolation. A large portion of the global economy, particularly Europe, no longer deals with Russia. In terms of technology, trade, and cultural exchange, Russia has become a pariah state.
- Russian-made weapons have been proven to underperform their NATO counterparts. This will make it very difficult for Russia to recover its weapons exports after the war. In fact, Serbia, Russia’s closest friend in Europe, has just ordered French jets last weeks.
- A broad reassessment of Russian military dominance is under way. From NATO members to Russia’s allies, countries are reassessing their geopolitical standing. Some European countries are becoming bolder in confronting Russia, while Iran is tuning down its rhetoric. Even Belarus appears to be making backup plans.
What Might Victory Look Like?
Faced with those challenges, what can Russia look for in a victory? I think there are three components any mix of which can be considered a win for Russia. A complete victory would comprise all of them.
- If Russia can conclude the war in Eastern Ukraine and achieve an armistice or force a concession, the drain on its economy can stop. This would give it time to recuperate economically and militarily.
- If NATO somehow disintegrates, the pressure against Russia on the west would alleviate. It would once again be surrounded by powerless small states that it can dominate over. Ukraine would also lose its sponsor in war, which makes their defeat inevitable and subsequent occupation much easier.
- If Russia can turn the West into its allies, it would no longer face international isolation. This would speed up its recovery, too.
How Could Victories Like These Be Achieved?
It is all but impossible, but there is a very, very slim chance, though Russia will not be in control. Rather, it all hinges on Trump and his ilk taking power in the US this year, immediately pull the US out of NATO, and pressure Ukraine into peace talks. Hopefully, they would ally with Russia against China down the line. In other words, victory for Russia depends on Russophiles in the West.
Currently, Russia is making a forceful push on key settlements in Donbas, at great cost of casualties and materiel. If it is able to take the entirety of the two Donbas oblasts before this winter, Russia would be in a position to conclude the military operation at the line of control. Then, if Trump wins and forces a peace settlement, the Russians will achieve at least Point 1. If Trump is motivated enough, Points 2 and 3 will also not be impossible.
However, I believe that these moves severely undermine American interests. They will quickly unravel the American empire, discredit the American government, demoralize the Americans, and destroy the American economy. For these reasons, forces beyond Trump’s control will ensure that he cannot regain office.
