economyFrance
Russia's Potential End Games in Ukraine #48
As Russia starts the 2nd phase of its operations in UA, we have enough information to start analyzing what its end game may be. In this podcast, I list 5 facts and discuss 3 possible end games.
Published by Dr Jiulin Teng on 31 Mar 2022
As Russia starts the 2nd phase of its operations in UA, we have enough
information to start analyzing what its end game may be. In this
podcast, I list 5 facts and discuss 3 possible end games:
1. Minima: Donbas independence + Crimea recognized + UA neutral,
demilitarized + UA deradicalized
2. Mid: Above + Land bridge to Transnistria
3. Maxima: Above + Kharkov + Dnipro + UA can join EU + Poland may annex
WUA
I suggest that Russia may take it slow but eventually reach No.3. There
won't be a negotiated political solution, but there'll be a ceasefire.
I'll revisit this topic in 1 month if the conflict continues then (it
most likely will).
